Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.630998 0.729085 0.834221 0.954934 1.089326 1.233976 1.401057
2025-02-16 0.442972 0.566171 0.708723 0.884410 1.093573 1.333051 1.626307
2025-02-23 0.306029 0.434607 0.595486 0.808126 1.078028 1.405261 1.827650
2025-03-02 0.206511 0.328547 0.494355 0.729662 1.047766 1.455135 2.007424
2025-03-09 0.149950 0.267196 0.439816 0.701738 1.076765 1.580933 2.294182
2025-03-16 0.107262 0.215520 0.388700 0.669616 1.094867 1.693396 2.574164
2025-03-23 0.083892 0.188653 0.369441 0.680534 1.174571 1.897273 2.995929
2025-03-30 0.059055 0.151593 0.325767 0.645725 1.180753 1.995940 3.277710
2025-04-06 0.043216 0.126553 0.297130 0.630207 1.213935 2.136158 3.629719
2025-04-13 0.030908 0.104301 0.268264 0.608782 1.233761 2.256313 3.959547
2025-04-20 0.023952 0.092001 0.256270 0.615948 1.302143 2.457668 4.426829
2025-04-27 0.017903 0.079251 0.240043 0.611836 1.349393 2.627454 4.854769
2025-05-04 0.013128 0.068022 0.225144 0.609622 1.403207 2.818257 5.339497
2025-05-11 0.009632 0.058820 0.212645 0.610409 1.463066 3.024822 5.865209
2025-05-18 0.006445 0.048112 0.192648 0.590499 1.479822 3.157118 6.275930
2025-05-25 0.003928 0.037475 0.168670 0.555875 1.461749 3.224583 6.580022
2025-06-01 0.002698 0.031954 0.158380 0.553036 1.509995 3.417876 7.114970
2025-06-08 0.001731 0.026425 0.145652 0.540964 1.536324 3.571257 7.587745
2025-06-15 0.001311 0.024325 0.144735 0.561297 1.637872 3.876973 8.351889
2025-06-22 0.000757 0.019443 0.130334 0.539590 1.639276 3.985145 8.759749
2025-06-29 0.000461 0.016269 0.121422 0.532144 1.673296 4.160456 9.300768
2025-07-06 0.000254 0.013224 0.111166 0.517831 1.688330 4.297230 9.775242
2025-07-13 0.000166 0.011800 0.108362 0.527445 1.764398 4.565231 10.511730